UFC Vegas 105: 2 Fights Out, 4 Model Predictions Left

This weekend’s UFC Vegas 105 card from the UFC Apex is headlined by a featherweight clash between veteran knockout artist Josh Emmett and the undefeated Lerone Murphy, who’s quietly built a perfect record and is ready for his breakout moment.

Lerone Murphy enters the octagon with an impressive 15-0-1 record and continues to look better each time out. Although he hasn’t picked up a knockout win since 2021, he’s proven to be a calculated and efficient striker, stacking up decision wins while staying defensively sound. Standing across from him is Josh Emmett, the 40-year-old brawler who recently bounced back from a two-fight skid with a vicious TKO win over Bryce Mitchell. Emmett is a fan favorite for his willingness to go to war, but questions remain about what he’s got left in the tank at this stage of his career.

Murphy will have a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup, and while his style doesn’t always scream “finisher,” he’s incredibly effective over the course of a full fight. His striking differential is one of the best indicators of that—Murphy lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.66, giving him a stellar +2.14 differential. On the flip side, Emmett lands 4.04 per minute but absorbs more than he dishes out at 4.61, for a negative differential of -0.51.

Emmett is still dangerous with his hands—he’s racked up 12 knockdowns in his UFC career and has real one-punch knockout power. But he also gets hit often. His striking accuracy sits at just 36%, with a 28% head strike accuracy, meaning he tends to swing big and absorb damage in return. He went five rounds with Ilia Topuria, which says something about his toughness, but it also raises the question: how much more can his chin take?

From a grappling standpoint, neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the ground. Both have solid control rates in the 60% range, but spend the vast majority of their fights at striking distance. Emmett stays on the feet 88% of the time, and Murphy has shown comfort on the feet obviously. If it does go to the ground, Murphy holds a slight edge in takedown accuracy at 54%, compared to Emmett’s 38%, though it likely won’t be a major factor.

One of the biggest metrics leaning Murphy’s way is his xR% of 77%, a clear sign of his dominance in exchanges over time. Emmett’s 48% xR% is serviceable, but far less reassuring, especially in a five-round fight where output and efficiency matter more.

I started the week with Murphy as a -300 favorite and was part of a parlay with Kennedy Nzechukwu at -129 odds. Unfortunately, Nzechukwu was forced out with an injury, leaving that parlay void. With Murphy now sitting at -320, there’s not much value in betting him straight. However, if you’re still looking for action, Murphy to win by decision at prices between -115 to EV is a reasonable option. That seems like the most likely outcome—Murphy uses his range, pace, and efficiency to outpoint Emmett over five rounds and picks up the win.