UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Erceg – Fight Breakdown & Betting Picks
The UFC returns to Mexico City this Saturday with an exciting card headlined by former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno taking on Steve Erceg in a big matchup for the division. The co-main event features a lightweight clash between Drew Dober and Manuel Torres, while the rest of the card is stacked with some action-packed fights.
Altitude will be a factor at nearly 7,300 feet above sea level, favoring fighters with strong cardio and conditioning. With a raucous home crowd behind Moreno and several Mexican fighters competing, expect high-energy performances throughout the night.
Let’s dive into a few matchups and check out what the model says for the weekend.
Jamall Emmers (-380) vs Gabriel Miranda (+315)
Emmers holds a three-inch reach advantage and boasts a respectable 66% xR%, while Miranda’s 22% stands out as a major red flag. Neither fighter has made a major impact in the UFC. Emmers is 3-4 since debuting in 2020, while Miranda is 1-2, though his debut loss came against Benoit Saint-Denis. Their strength of schedule is weak, so we have to focus on their individual skill sets.
Emmers fights at distance 71% of the time and has a significant striking advantage. He lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute with a 1.41 differential, while Miranda lands just 2.82 and has a concerning -2.48 differential. Miranda has been knocked down four times in three UFC fights and absorbs 5.30 significant strikes per minute. Emmers, while not elite, absorbs fewer at 3.62.
Miranda is known for his submission game, with 16 of his 17 pro wins coming via submission. However, he’s struggled against better competition and has only a 27% control rate in the UFC. Diving into his fight record, you'll see that some of those submission wins are against some suspect competition. I'm talking guys that are 0-8, 0-7, 5-5.
Emmers, meanwhile, has maintained an 89% control rate in the clinch and on the ground. Given the advantages in striking and control, it’s no surprise I’m siding with Jamall Emmers. The model gives him an extremely high score, although given the competition, very understandable.
However, at -360, I’m not interested in the moneyline. Instead, I’m taking Emmers to win by TKO/KO at +125.
One note, Emmers' fight IQ could come into play which makes him a dangerous parlay piece. I'd hate to see any parlays killed by a -360 favorite because Jamall Emmers shot a random takedown attempt.
Manuel Torres (+100) vs. Drew Dober (-120) (Co-Main Event)
Drew Dober has been in the UFC since 2013 and holds a 13-10 record. At 36 years old, he’s gone 4-5 since 2021, raising concerns about how much he has left in the tank besides just collecting a paycheck. Meanwhile, Manuel Torres is 3-1 in the UFC since debuting in 2022 and holds an impressive 75% xR%.
Torres has never gone to the scorecards in the UFC, with three first-round finishes. Dober is also a finisher, with nine knockouts and one submission, but he’s been finished six times himself. Torres lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute with a 1.35 differential, while Dober lands 4.39 with a near-even 0.13 differential. Dober's power is not be ignored, he has scored nine knockdowns in the UFC.
Both fighters absorb a lot of damage—Torres at 4.96 strikes per minute, Dober at 4.25. However, Torres’ fights tend to be short, so his ability to handle sustained damage remains a question mark. Neither fighter has strong wrestling credentials. Dober has landed just nine takedowns in 23 fights with a 17% accuracy, while Torres has only two takedowns in his UFC career.
This fight will likely be a striking battle, and with the model predicting a decently confident score, I’m backing the younger, more aggressive finisher in Manuel Torres to win.
Brandon Moreno (-260) vs. Steve Erceg (+220) (Main Event)
Brandon Moreno returned to the octagon in November with a strong decision win, showing he’s still a contender. He enters this fight as a -200 favorite, and I locked in my bet early, expecting the odds to shift further in his favor.
Steve Erceg’s rise in the flyweight division made him look like a future champion, but his sole title shot took a hit with a loss to Alexandre Pantoja and followed that up with a knockout defeat against Kai Kara-France last August. This is his first fight since those losses.
Moreno has fought the best of the division, holding a 63% xR% and proving he can finish fights or go the distance. Both fighters land around four significant strikes per minute with nearly identical differentials, making their stand-up exchanges evenly matched. Moreno has recorded four knockdowns in his UFC career and has shown he can end fights in multiple ways.
What separates them is the grappling. Moreno has a 64% control rate in the clinch and on the ground, with 30 takedowns and a solid 46% takedown accuracy. More importantly, he fights at a relentless pace, constantly pushing forward. He's attempted eight submissions in his UFC career and keeps opponents on the defensive.
Moreno’s non-stop pressure, combined with the energy of the Mexico City crowd, gives him the edge. As I mentioned, he is already on my betting slip at -200. At the current price of -260, I think he's a much stronger parlay piece than a method of victory prop. Erceg was KO'd in his last fight but Kara-France was looking to make a statement, Moreno adapts to the fight and potentially could be ok just outstriking and outscoring his opponent.
Eight total predictions from the model this week. A few underdogs, but play them carefully as they did not score as highly either.
